After the outbreak of full-scale war in Ukraine, millions of citizens were forced to leave their homes in search of safety and protection for their lives. Starting on February 24, 2022, due to mass casualties, destruction of infrastructure, and the inability to provide basic living conditions, most refugees began to seek refuge abroad.
To gain a deeper understanding of the situation with Ukrainian refugees, I analyzed statistical data reflecting the scale of migration, the dynamics of returns, and the impact of these processes on the country. My goal is to present a complete picture that will help not only to assess the current state of affairs, but also to predict possible future developments.
Starting in late February and early March 2022, there was a noticeable increase in people leaving the country. Around 2.5 million Ukrainians left their homes in the first month after the war started. Later, the situation slowed down, but if you look at the graph, you can see a change in the situation from May to September 2022. At that time, most asylum seekers began to return to Ukraine. According to the Global Trends Report 2022, the number of internally displaced persons at the end of 2022 was about 5.9 million, which is seven times more than at the end of 2021.
According to data from December 2022, women make up 59–64% of refugees from Ukraine, while children account for only 33–39%. Men make up the smallest percentage, at 16.6% as of November 2022.
However, despite the steady increase in the number of people seeking refuge, some are returning home despite the danger and constant shelling. In October, approximately 1 366 000 people spontaneously returned to Ukraine from abroad, but it is impossible to determine the nature of these returns—whether they are temporary or permanent. The most popular reasons for returning among those surveyed were homesickness (42%), work and own business (34%), and reuniting with family (30%).
According to UNHCR data for September 2023, approximately 6,203,600 people remain displaced abroad. This figure is truly impressive!
A year and a half after the start of the war, Ukrainians continue to return to their homeland. As of early November 2023, according to reliefweb.int., the reasons remain the same, but this year the desire to reunite with family ranks first at 49%, followed by homesickness at 35% and work at 15%.
According to the latest update from the UN Office on December 16, 2024, the number of refugees outside Ukraine has grown to 6,813,000. From this, we can conclude that most Ukrainians are still leaving their homeland in search of safety, comfort, and better living conditions.
However, there are still those who return after living abroad for almost three years. Recently, I stumbled upon a video on Тик-Ток by a young UGC creator, Anastasia, who had been living in Switzerland all this time but decided to return to Kyiv. She cites her family as the main reason for her return, as well as the higher quality of restaurants in Ukraine and the fact that she missed warm gatherings with friends.
According to official data from a survey conducted by the Center for Economic Strategy and the Info Sapiens research agency, Ukrainians cite the end of the war (51%) and the absence of air strikes in their home region (34%) as the main incentives for returning. Economic factors are also important: the possibility of finding a well-paid job (28%) and a higher standard of living in Ukraine (20%).
In a recent interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Ukrainians to return and stressed that most asylum seekers who have been unable to find work will be returned by their host countries.
“Ukrainians are often hired as cheap labor, but then it becomes apparent that they perform better than local workers. These individuals remain and are valued. Those who do not perform well are asked to return home”.
So, summarizing all the figures and facts, we can conclude that while the war continues, most people are still leaving Ukraine. Some leave temporarily to wait out the active phase of hostilities and then return, some try to integrate and accept the rules of their new country, and others are constantly living out of suitcases, torn between Ukraine and abroad. In any case, it is difficult to say exactly what percentage of people will return and what percentage will remain living in a foreign country. For us Ukrainians, the most difficult question right now is: “Do you plan to stay or return home?” Many people ask themselves this question every day, without finding a clear answer.
My own opinion
As for me, during my first six months in Germany, I wanted to go home every day. I reread every news article in the hope of seeing the headline: “The war is over!” so that I could return home. Every day was a challenge for me. But then I came to terms with it and began to integrate into society, find friends, and discover new opportunities for career growth. And even though I am already studying at university and will definitely spend the next three years in Germany, I still miss my homeland. I especially want to finally see my parents and grandmother, with whom I have only been communicating remotely since moving abroad.
Many Germans don’t understand how anyone could take a vacation and travel to Ukraine, where there is a war going on. However, I understand these people perfectly well, because I myself would like to finally see my loved ones. Homesickness and longing for your family is like leaving your soul at home while you are physically in a foreign land. It’s like a nagging toothache that reminds you of your roots. It’s when you smile at your loved ones only in your memories, but in reality you cry when you look at old photos.
I wish every Ukrainian to find themselves and be safe where they feel comfortable.
Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!